The timeline question misses what's already happened: AI hasn't eliminated jobs yet, but it's already eliminated the *future* people were promised about those jobs.

A 45-year-old accountant or radiologist wasn't worried about losing their job last year. They were worried about their kids. Because they could see where this was going. Now they're worried about themselves, too.

What's brutal is the asymmetry. Some people will time it perfectly and sail into retirement. Others will be forced to retrain in their 50s, on their own dime, for skills we don't even know will exist in 5 years. And the social contract has no answer for that gap.

I don't know if AI eliminates jobs before retirement. But I'm pretty sure it eliminates the predictability that made retirement planning possible. And that might be worse.